Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
